Recently on a Podcast discussing political changes I heard the phrase, “watch the extremes to see what will happen next in the center” used to describe how radical ideas affected the larger society. The premise was that far out ideas will generate pressure on commonly held beliefs (the center) and in the long run change the direction of the mainstream. Examples can be found in many disciplines ranging from politics to economics. An example from the world of economics of ideas changing the center is the impact of the ideas of Adam Smith which at the time was a radical theory and is now a core tenant in the practice of economics. I would suggest the same mechanism is at work in process improvement. If we consider the frameworks, methodologies and practices of process improvement on a continuum there are those in the mainstream, those on the fringe and those in transition from the fringe to the mainstream. Extreme programming (xP) is an example of an idea that was once considered a fringe idea that has moved to the mainstream practice of software development.
The fringes attract new ideas and form crucibles of experimentation. Ideas that survive experimentation are typically consolidated into operational practices that are which can be absorbed into common usage as part of the mainstream. A healthy organization can be thought of as an ecosystem that spins off ideas that are out of the norm which are then reabsorbed them as they mature (assuming they provide value). As ideas are at absorbed back into the mainstream the center of the absolute midpoint is changed; bureaucratic organizations become more agile, manufacturing-driven organizations are reforged as market-driven companies. The bottom line is that new ideas, new practices, can change long held paradigms.
Understanding and participating in the life cycle of ideas is important when managing organizational change. Process improvement leaders need to identify the innovators and thought leaders within their organization. Thought leaders on the fringe act as gravity wells to consolidate disjointed or partially formed ideas and refine them into operationally useful practices (or alternately expose their weaknesses). The best change leaders can tap into centers of new thought inside and outside their organization to predict the direction of change and to influence how change will impact their organization. The life cycles of agile methods such as Scrum and xP are macro level examples. Agile methods were developed at the edge of the IT world by thought leaders that perceived the mainstream to be dominated by high ceremony and bureaucratic practices which sapped effectiveness. These methods were consolidated and refined into tools that have been become part of the larger mainstream of IT methodologies. What are the ideas at the fringe of IT today? What are the ideas that will change your world?
Where do you look for the next big thing in the world of methodology or process improvement? Based on the stack of magazines that accumulates when I am away for a week and the size of the headlines, I believe the industry press thinks they serve as thought leaders. Deciding whether the industry press is a harbinger of new thoughts is important to support trend spotting. Spotting trends in tools, methods or processes is important to process improvement personnel to ensure change happens in an orderly fashion. Agile methods are currently the darling of the industry press. Whether the press are “hindcasters” (a reflection of the present or the near past) or seers able to predict the future is not material. The amount of coverage suggests that agile methods no longer as extreme and are in process of being reabsorbed by the center. I suggest that this is further evidenced by the change in words being used to describe agile methods by current centrists such as Barry Boehm, Tom Demarco and Dave Garmus. What will the next big thing in the worlds of process improvement, measurement and methodologies? Where does one find the where the new generation of thought leaders are germinating? What was next and who would lead the movement would allow you to plan and evolve your practice rather than waking up one morning to discover the world has changed. One trend to watch in the year 2008 seems to be the creation of communities of thought. The combination of tools and the web have allowed the creation of communities that defy geographic boundaries (although they are certainly influenced by personal culture). The speed that communities have formed and reformed belies the old truism that information technology workers were introverts. Worlds like Face Book, My Space and Second Life are providing areas where thought leaders can gather and identify each other. Tools like instant messenger, VIOP, and Twitter provide platforms to interact. Podcasting and blogs function as the new printing press to disseminate information and educate others in a low risk, low cast manner. The risk I see is that the new tools which allow ideas to form a core of adherents quickly and easily do not force ideas to be re-consolidated back into the mainstream. If ideas are do not reconsolidate we will end up with many micro-ecosystems in the development world. Each splinter group will end up competing with each other resources. I suggest that this will create more contention and volatility than most organizations can accept. This is not a reason to shy away from allowing communities to form and providing collaboration tools to support those communities. As process improvement professionals I believe we need to be methodology agonistic and call for our customers to be idea omnivorous.
