Rip Currents Are Complex!

We have been using the metaphors of heat death (controlling how people work to reduce variability to a negligible level) and gray goo (little or no control leading to process anarchy) to illustrate the impact of process control strategies. Neither extreme is a good idea. In most circumstances, every organization and team needs to find their own equilibrium spot. VUCA, an acronym for the attributes volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, describes four of the factors that define why organizations vary between strict control and laissez-faire approaches.

Volatility describes the amount and speed of change in an environment. Some industries and markets are evolving quickly; therefore they are more volatile, while others are far more predictable. Environments that are more volatile are better served by allowing teams to assess context and to have more control over how they work.

Uncertainty in software development (including enhancement and maintenance) is whether the team knows the solution to a problem (business or technical). Even in the age of Google, there are problems that are novel and not Google-able. Having a structured approach to investigation and experimentation yield more consistent results — a structured approach is closer to the heat death end of the continuum.

Complexity is the interaction of components in which the outcome is not perfectly predictable based on the known or measured inputs. Technical and business scenarios that lack predictability require teams to assess context so they can tweak both the approach to work (Scrum, Kanban or project management planning techniques) and how they work (technical practices). 

Ambiguity describes scenarios with more than one interpretation. Ambiguous situations require teams to continuously assess and react to their environments to ensure that what they are delivering  actually has business value. Note: Ambiguity is one of the reasons that development processes with continuous or short feedback loops exist (Scrum being one example). Pushing decision making down to the lowest responsible level allows teams to react and pivot faster.

The assessment of the impact of VUCA on process control assumes that VUCA is generated by the business environment and is not self-inflicted due to lax process leadership. This is a catch 22; if process leadership is overlax, the observed level of VUCA in the environment will appear much higher than it needs to be. As an observer of people and process, it is not always easy to see the difference without significant due diligence.  While the two scenarios look every similar the solutions are very different.

In general, higher levels of VUCA tend to favor less strict control approaches to work in software development. I do not think that is a remarkable statement yet what often does not get mentioned when discussing the impact of VUCA is that there are precursors for delegating control of how people work. Factors that are important in that discussion include a strong and shared vision, a well-trained and diverse workforce, a flexible framework to provide guardrails, and a mechanism to provide fast and accurate feedback (management and measurement).