Sushi Rice and Tofu Bowl

Don’t assume no meat mean no taste!

Monte Carlo analysis provides a way to handle answering questions with significant uncertainty in the inputs that influence the outcome of the work so you can have the difficult “when, what, and how much” type conversations with sponsors, stakeholders, and marketing people. That definition is an explicit admission that almost ALL of the hard questions asked about projects cannot be answered using simple a + b = c formulas or arguments. This leads us to use tools like Monte Carlo analysis. There are four common assumptions often overlooked or misunderstood when using Monte Carlo methods. (more…)

A New Copy!

Before we dive into Chapter 15  (two chapters left, and chapter 17 is a case study!), I want to alert you to the poll at the end of this entry.  It is time to choose the next book in the re-read series. Feel free to start a write-in category.

Chapter 15 is titled, Monte Carlo Methods Introduction in Daniel S. Vacanti’s Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability: An Introduction (buy a copy today).  FYI, I interviewed Daniel Vacanti and will post the interview at the conclusion of the re-read (it was wicked cool). (more…)


How to Measure Anything, Finding the Value of “Intangibles in Business” Third Edition

Chapter 6 of How to Measure Anything, Finding the Value of “Intangibles in Business” Third Edition, is titled: Quantifying Risk Through Modeling. Chapter 6 builds on the basics described in Chapter 4 (define the decision and data that will be needed) and Chapter 5 (determine what is known). Hubbard addresses the process of quantifying risk in two overarching themes. The first theme is the quantification of risk and the second is using the Monte Carlo analysis to model outcomes. (more…)