Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Re-read Week 21 – Chapter 21 Intuitions vs. Formulas

 

This week in our re-read of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman opens with a discussion of a number of studies that show that professional predictions are far less accurate than simple algorithmic predictions. The work that sends Kahneman down this was originally done by Paul Meehl and published in the book Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence (1954). At the time of publication of Thinking Fast and Slow decades later, studies across a wide range of subjects show that formulas beat intuition at least 60% of the time. Bluntly stated, formulas beat intuition most of the time – the idea that algorithms are powerful should surprise no one in 2019.

 

SPaMCAST 562 – The Power of No, Real Planning, Essays and Discussions

http://www.spamcast.net

 

Direct Playback
Subscribe: Apple Podcast
Check out the podcast on Google Play Music
Listen on Spotify!

SPaMCAST 562 features our essay on the power of saying no.  I firmly believe that unless you have control over the amount of work you take, you are asking for a trainwreck.  The problem is that saying no is often harder than being late or over budget.  

We will also have a visit from the Software Sensei.  Kim Pries is back to kick off September with an essay titled, Real Planning. While the actual plan might not be exactly what happens in real life, the act of planning is crucial. 

 

SPaMCAST 551 – Agile and Leadership; An Interview With Michael Lynn

http://www.spamcast.net

Direct Playback

Subscribe: Apple Podcast
Check out the podcast on Google Play Music
Listen on Spotify!

SPaMCAST 551 features our interview with Michael (Mike) Lynn.  Mike and I talked about leadership and agile. Leadership is important any time two or more people get together to pursue a goal. Mike shares his expertise, experience, and wisdom to help shine a light on the relationship between agile and leadership.  

 

SPaMCAST 544 – Measuring and Predicting Performance, An Interview with Jeppe Hedaa

http://www.spamcast.net

Direct Playback
Subscribe: Apple Podcast
Check out the podcast on Google Play Music
Listen on Spotify!

SPaMCAST 544 features our interview with Jeppe Hedaa.  Mr. Hedaa and I discuss his new book, Nucleon: The Missing Formula That Measures Your IT Development Team’s Performance. Our discussion centers on the book but also touches on meritocracy and why you want top performers on a team. This is a wide-ranging interview with thought-provoking ideas as we talk about Nucleon!

Jeppe’s bio:

Jeppe Hedaa has been working with complex systems development for more than 30 years, serving the largest IT development departments. He is the CEO and owner of 7N, who is an agent for top 3% IT specialists. 7N has departments in the US, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, India and Denmark. In September 2018 he published the book “Nucleon: The missing formula that measures your IT department’s performance”, where he describes how to calculate a hard number for an IT team’s performance that could best be compared to that of horsepower in a car. In the book, he also measures the factors that hold back an organization’s delivery and identifies the most impactful areas for improvement.

Our review of Nucleon: http://bit.ly/2XQvB9T

 

Toxic Forms of Leadership

Maybe not toxic but certainly wet!

Bad Blood, Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou, the current re-read Saturday book, is an example of a toxic environment on a grand scale. Every attribute that we reviewed earlier in this theme on toxic cultures can be found in the tale Mr. Carreyrou describes. In the next installment of the re-read we are stepping back from the narrative to highlight how toxic cultures at this level can be used as a cautionary tale to help keep teams on the straight and narrow.  Highlighting the behaviors of a toxic leader provides another framework to evaluate or identify a toxic environment.

 

SPaMCAST 518 – Leadership, Coaching, and Mentoring, An Interview With Rebecca Staton-Reinstein

http://www.spamcast.net

Listen Now
Subscribe: Apple Podcast
Check out the podcast on Google Play Music

SPaMCAST 518 features our interview with Rebecca Staton-Reinstein.  We discussed leadership, the difference between leadership and management, coaching versus mentoring and who should own your improvement program.  Rebecca and I have known each other for years and I have always enjoyed her wisdom and pragmatic advice. She really delivers the goods.

Rebecca’s bio:

REBECCA STATON-REINSTEIN, Ph.D. is the president of Advantage Leadership, Inc.

Where she works with companies around the world that want strategic leaders and engaged employees to increase bottom- and top-line results and delight customers. Clients achieve their goals through strategic planning and leadership, management, team, and organizational development. Rebecca’s team works with clients to craft customized, successful solutions to their complex business issues in all economic sectors. Rebecca’s says, “Our mission is your success.”

For over 25 years, Rebecca has contributed improved organizational value as a leader, manager, technologist, keynoter, educator, and consultant honored by organizations on four continents. She is a Ph.D. in organizational development, MBTI® Master Practitioner, a National Speakers Association Professional Member, St. Petersburg Engineering Academy Foreign Member, and Board of Directors Chairperson-Elect, Davie-Cooper City Chamber of Commerce.

Contact Information:

Rebecca Staton-Reinstein, Ph.D., President

Advantage Leadership, Inc.

320 S Flamingo Road, Suite 291, Pembroke Pines, FL 33027

Rebecca@AdvantageLeadership.com

Phone: +305-606-9312  

Web:  http://www.AdvantageLeadership.com  

Amazon Author Page: http://tinyurl.com/RSRpage

Join me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rebeccastatonreinstein

Re-Read Saturday News
We continue our journey through Bad Blood, Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou (published by Alfred A. Knopf, 2018).  Today based on the advice of Stephen Adams we tackle chapters three, four and five. The chapters  are titled, “Apple Envy”, “Goodbye East Paly” and “Childhood Neighbors.” The chapters we cover this week paint a picture of a toxic culture full of deceit, naiveté, and vindictiveness; this will be a blockbuster movie someday. While Theranos sounds extraordinary, it isn’t hard to find similar corporate train wrecks. Bad Blood needs to be read as a cautionary tale.

Current Week:  Week 3 — Apple Envy, Goodbye East Paly and Childhood Neighbors – https://bit.ly/2zbOTeO

Week 1 – Approach and Introduction – https://bit.ly/2J1pY2t   

 

Negative and Unhealthy Reciprocity

What is the outcome if the sign is on the ground?

In our essay Reciprocity or Manipulation, we broached the idea that reciprocity can be negative. Negative actions are often reciprocated with negative actions.  Just yell at a driver who just misses you as you jog through a city and see what response you get. In general, negative reciprocity is behavior that occurs when an action has a negative effect on someone and that someone returns with an action that is approximately as negative. Tit for tat behavior is a polite way to describe negative reciprocity.